I think Biden will win, but I still think Trump still has more of a chance than some are giving him credit for.
Biden is leading in key states, and Trump is basically going to have to get Pennsylvania in order to have a path to win. Polling got it wrong with Clinton in 2016, and Trump pulled off the shocker. However, I think this year Trump is less of a new flashy outsider and has 4 years of political experience under his belt for people to pick apart (Good and bad for him).
If Trump wants to win he needs to sweep most of the swing states he carried in 2016; Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, NC, and Florida. Biden has a better shot in Florida than Clinton did in 2016, as he does much higher with the older population than her (And is generally less hated in general than Clinton).
I made an electoral map for how I think it will play out, but if FL or PA are called for Trump tomorrow night, he's right back in it:
Takeaways for if Trump does win:
- He did it off the back of the same supporters that carried him in 2016 (Midwestern, white blue collar males)
- Voter apathy/Suburban moms didn't flock to Biden like people said they would
- Trump's coronavirus response is polling awfully but he's still riding fairly high on his economic polling numbers
- Incumbents tend to be playing with house money and have fared very well in past elections despite controversy
If Biden wins:
- Biden just isn't nearly as hated as HRC was, he is not at all exciting or a breath of fresh air, but he is seen as a "safe" choice for people that voted Obama in 08 and 12
- All signs point towards high voter turnout, traditionally this is good for Democrats
- Biden has a warchest 3 times the size of Trump and he spent just about all of it
- Trump didn't have the benefit of the "outsider" persona anymore, no matter how much he says otherwise he became a Politician.
Either way, Pennsylvania is probably the state to watch.