NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella is well known among gamers not only for delivering the statistics firm’s monthly analysis on the United States’ gaming market but also for providing relevant insight on the business workings of the industry.

Following today’s Sony Corporate Strategy Meeting, in which PlayStation President John Kodera mentioned that the PS4 is entering the final phase of its life cycle Piscatella shared his prediction for the launch date of the next console by Sony. According to the analyst, it isn’t coming before the fall of 2020.

Interestingly, Piscatella also expects the pace of incremental upgrades like PS4 Pro and Xbox One X to accelerate within the next generation.

I’m forecasting PS5 no earlier than fall 2020, which would mean at least 3 more holidays of big releases to enjoy on the platform, and a perfectly normal cycle length. Just because a next gen is mentioned is meaningless to the breadth and depth of content that is coming.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018

In the future I do expect pace of incremental upgrades to happen much more quickly, on a 1-2 year cycle instead of 4-7 in order to better mirror what happens in other tech lines. Lots of benefits with more frequency.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018

Earlier today Piscatella also commented on the fact that some appeared surprised by Kodera’s statement.

Current cycle started in 2013. Of course we are entering the final stages of it. We’ve only been through this whole cyclicality thing seven or so times before. How is this even at all surprising.

— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) May 22, 2018

At the moment there have been no relevant rumors or leaks about the PlayStation 5, which appears to support Piscatella’s prediction. In the meanwhile, PS4 shipped 79 million units as of March 31st.

Personally, I tend to agree with Piscatella’s forecast, at least on the year. At the moment Sony Interactive Entertainment is in a position of absolute leadership on the console market. It’s difficult to envision them being too eager to abandon that position of strength by resetting the competition with a brand new generation, restarting from zero installed base.

Posted: May 23, 2018 10:06 am
Related Forum: PlayStation Forum

Source: https://www.dualshockers.com/ps5-fall-2020-npd-analyst/