Maze wroteSkill based matchmaking in CoD? Jeez their decisions just keep getting worse and worse.
After a little bit of research, I stumbled upon this article that will help you guys out.
Here is an excerpt that explains pretty much exactly how it works:
First, neither have found any evidence that matchmaking assigns higher priority to player skill over ping to server. In all cases, players were arranged first based on connection, then on skill level. This dispels one common misconception about SBMM.
The other major finding is the most interesting. Based on data across the six different accounts, the game appears to take player performance in the last five matches when matching them up with others in the sixth. However, the thing to note here is that public player stats such as K/D, W/L and score-per-minute don't quite factor into that.
Instead, there appears to be a hidden skill-tracking algorithm that assigns ratings based on past performance in the last five matches. K/D appears to factor more heavily into that than other stats, but that is still a small .83 coefficient. Using this information, matchmaking then decides who to bring in your lobby. In other words, doing well for five matches moves you to a higher bracket.
So first things first, it prioritizes connection over everything. Then it only tracks 5 games at a time.
Both of these make it completely NOT SBMM, but I'm not going to get into that.
If you're good at the game and consistently go positive, you're going to match a bunch of low tier, camping players who are in the same bracket as you simply because they camp all game and are able to get the same/close stats as you.
That article was good, but it did leave out a small tidbit of information that drift0r acknowledged in his video. At the end of the video, he mentioned that even though stats weren't clearly causing SBMM, he still felt as though it existed when playing between his three accounts. For instance, he showed clips while playing on the "bad" account with a sub 1 KD and the players had horrible accuracy and movement and were generally not great players. On his "good" 4 KD account he showed players picking him off of head glitches and admitted that those games were exhausting and required a ton of focus. To me, this means that the public stats that we are privy to aren't a major impetus for the sbmm system that iw has in place. It isn't drift0rs nor anyone's fault that they can't figure out how the sbmm works because we aren't supposed to, and the algorithm is kept secret and internal on purpose to avoid abuse.
My opinion on sbmm is this: they have probably dozens of individual weighted factors that go into deciding how to place players among each other. I also believe the people in Australia who constantly complain of ending up in EU, FR, or US servers and I think it shows a certain level of choosing skill over ping, because I simply can't come up with a better explanation as to why they are hitting servers across the world in order to find games. I believe that living in heavily populated areas like the east/west coast will probably bias these skill>ping results (again not the fault of drift0r, just a built in bias to his study).
I imagine they take factors like accuracy, number of steps, time moving, time sprinting, time crouching, bullets fired, time ADS, guns used, perks used, killstreaks, and other behavioral stats along with the standard public kills/deaths/wins/losses. And probably applies weights to each of the factors they use to create a sort of player profile. They will then match these player profiles to each other in order to get players with similar profiles to face off with each other. This type of matchmaking would work great in a late stage game because every players stats are very secure, and individual games wouldn't have major impacts. But at the moment, most people don't have 10+ days played on the game, so each match played causes noticeable shifts in their player profile, thus matching them with new and different types of opponents every single match. This feels erratic and is causing a lot of the problems people have with sbmm in modern warfare.
I think it's unnecessary to have in public casual matches, but I'm not surprised by it in a game made for casual/new players. I'm sure iw is just hoping to outlast the new stages of the game until the sbmm levels out and people will no longer notice. Keeping new players against new players and experienced players against experienced players is a perfect marketing technique for them.