Mikey wroteThis virus thing is so hyped its a joke, I can't even go to do a weekly shop cuz shelves are empty in Tesco ffs. Yes, people die, it sucks, but did we hear about the 31,000 people died yesterday of hunger... NO. I understand that hunger doesn't spread, but really, if UK Gov gave a real shit about this virus, why tf they still letting planes land in UK from China, Italy and Iran, and those are the countries with the most cases smh. The news here is a joke, making my mum upset every day, panicking after seeing shit on news like 9 million people gonna die like WTF? 28,000 died since this started 5 months ago, so how tf the news come up with a number of 9 million deaths ?... JUST TO SCARE THE SHIT OUT EVERYONE LIKE MY MUM! I understand the spread can get worse, but even if the deaths now tripled in the next 5 months still only 84,000 would die, so again WHERE IS THE 9 MILLION DEATHS COMING FROM? My main point here is if this was as serious as they making it out to be saying millions gonna die, why are we not on a LOCKDOWN? and when i say a lockdown, i mean a LOCKDOWN
Anyone who says millions will die is simply fear mongering. Yes, millions COULD die, but anyone who tries to give you a "Yes millions of people will die" most likely has an alternative vested interest in you believing them. I believe with everyone stuck at home constantly checking the news it's also leading to some severe anxiety, as the news networks profit heavily off of crisis'.
However, the problem with Corona is that it's an exponential one. We do not have any straight forward treatment options for hospitalized patients that are fighting Corona, all that can be done is simply treatments to alleviate symptoms and comfort. What this means is that it's completely on your own immune system to fight off the infection, there are no medications or vaccines available to fight off the disease, which is why we are seeing a large % off deaths come from the elderly or predisposed. Hospitals are quickly being overran with patients, to the point where in Italy they are currently on the verge of having to decide whether to take ventilators away from elderly patients (Basically letting them die) in order to give them to patients that have a better chance of survival. This isn't simply an issue of Coronavirus killing people either, it's the secondary effects of having our healthcare systems overran. You get in a car accident? Need emergency surgery? Require a ventilator for a non-corona related condition? There's a high chance that soon you will not be able to be given care quickly enough because doctors, nurses, and hospitals are too busy dealing with the flood of Coronavirus cases.
This is quick and rough math, it doesn't give a 100% accurate picture because of lack of quantifiable data and misrepresented statistics (i.e Cases are starting to skyrocket, this doesn't mean that millions more are getting sick or the virus is mutated, it simply means that we are expanding testing, which is a good thing). However I think it paints a good picture of how dangerous exponential problems can be, and how quickly they can get out of hand. I'm going to use the US for this example.
113,000 reported cases as of today 3/28. A rough estimated average of a 1.15 growth rate, over a 30 day span equates to:
(1.15)^30 * 113,000 = 7,481,930 cases 30 days from now.
However, by implementing social distancing procedures and lockdowns, what if we could lower the 1.15 growth rate to 1.05? In that case:
(1.05)^30 * 113,000 = 488,379 cases 30 days from now
I believe limited interaction and bars being closed down is a worthy sacrifice in order to help flatten the logistic curve.